Din stemme betyr ingenting

I USA er det visst vanlig å sende rundt lister over valg som er avgjort med en stemme, slik at barn skal bli innprentet at deres stemme er viktig. Vel, det viser seg at listene er løgn fra ende til annen. Det har Jeremy Horpedahl, en amerikansk blogger, oppdaget:

The oft-cited claim that «one vote gave Adolf Hitler leadership of the Nazi Party» is a clear example of this: Hitler was not elected by one vote, but rather had only one vote against him (553 to 1), probably the Ron Paul of the Nazi Party if you can imagine that.

Nacim Bouchtia, en kommentator, skriver:

My 7th grade Civics teacher gave us a list of elections that were supposedly decided by one vote. The Hitler example was one of them. I was so moved by this factoid that I went on to write a terribly written essay about how I wish I had a time machine coupled with the ability to change that one vote.

Oh public school.

Horpedahl mener at det kan være farlig å overvurdere stemmens betydning.

If an individual overestimates the probability of being decisive by 100-fold, their expected monetary benefit of being decisive will also increase 100-fold. It is my claim that repeated statements about examples of «your one vote counting» cause individuals to overestimate the probability of decisiveness.

Altså: Hvis du overvurderer sannsynligheten for at din egen stemme blir avgjørende, kan det påvirke hvordan du stemmer. Et eksempel på dette er såkalt taktisk stemming.